FIRE Number Calculator (Sequence-Risk Adjusted)
Retiring decades early needs a lower withdrawal rate than 4%
FIRE Number Calculator (Sequence-of-Returns Adjusted)
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Standard FIRE number (4% rule)
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25× annual expenses
SORR-adjusted FIRE number
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Extra buffer needed
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Why early retirees need a lower withdrawal rate
The 4% rule was tested against 30-year retirement horizons; retiring at 45 could mean a 45+ year horizon, and a market downturn in your first few retired years (sequence-of-returns risk) can permanently impair a portfolio in a way the same downturn wouldn't if it happened mid-retirement.
Sequence risk is about WHEN losses happen, not just how much
Two retirees with identical average returns over 30 years can have wildly different outcomes if one hits a bear market in year 1-3 (forced to sell more shares at low prices to fund withdrawals) versus year 25-27 (portfolio has already compounded, losses matter less).
A flexible spending plan reduces the buffer you need
Building in the willingness to cut discretionary spending during a market downturn (a "guardrails" approach) lets many early retirees safely use a rate closer to 4% instead of the more conservative 3-3.3% a rigid fixed-withdrawal plan requires.
Standard FIRE number uses the traditional 4% rule (25× annual expenses), based on Trinity-study-style research over rolling 30-year US market periods. The SORR-adjusted number scales the withdrawal rate down for younger retirement ages (reflecting the longer horizon and higher sequence-of-returns exposure), using a simplified age-based adjustment rather than an actual Monte Carlo simulation of your specific portfolio and spending flexibility. Real safe withdrawal rates depend heavily on asset allocation, spending flexibility, and Social Security/pension timing, none of which are modeled here. Not financial advice.