Safe Withdrawal Rate Backtester

How often your withdrawal rate would have survived US market history

Safe Withdrawal Rate Backtester

Withdrawal rate %

Retirement horizon yrs

Equity allocation %

Historical success rate estimate

of rolling US historical periods that didn't run out of money

On $1,000,000 portfolio

first year's withdrawal

Success-rate estimates are a simplified approximation built from published historical safe-withdrawal-rate research (Bengen, the Trinity study, and subsequent updates) using their published rolling-period success rates as reference points and interpolating between them — this is NOT a live Monte Carlo simulation or a real historical backtest of your specific inputs. Past US market history, however favorable, is not a guarantee of future returns; sequences of returns, inflation, and fees can all differ going forward. Use this as a directional estimate, not a precise probability, and consider consulting a fee-only financial planner for an actual retirement income plan. Not financial advice.

What to work out next

Retirement Number Calculator

Find the number you need to retire comfortably.

401(k) Calculator

Project your 401(k) balance with contributions and employer match.

HSA Calculator

See how an HSA grows with its triple tax break.

Inflation Calculator

See what today's dollar is worth years from now.

Roth vs Traditional Calculator

Pay tax now, or later? See which wins.

Social Security Estimator

Claim at 62, 67, or 70? Compare your benefit.

Frequently asked questions

How much do I actually need to retire comfortably?

It depends on your expected retirement expenses, Social Security benefit, and life expectancy -- there's no single universal number, though rules of thumb like "25x annual expenses" are a common starting point. This calculator lets you build a more specific estimate from your own numbers.Read more: Social Security Estimator: Why Claiming Age Changes Everything

What's the difference between a 401(k) and an IRA?

A 401(k) is employer-sponsored, often with an employer match, and has a higher annual contribution limit. An IRA is opened independently at a brokerage, with a lower contribution limit but typically far more investment choice. Many people contribute to both -- a 401(k) up to the employer match, then an IRA.Read more: Roth vs Traditional Calculator: Pay Tax Now or Pay Tax Later?

When should I claim Social Security -- 62, 67, or 70?

Claiming at 62 gives a permanently reduced benefit; waiting until your full retirement age (typically 66-67) gives the full benefit; waiting until 70 gives the maximum benefit, growing roughly 8% per year you delay past full retirement age. The right age depends on your health, other income, and whether you need the money sooner.Read more: Retirement Number Calculator: How Much Is Actually Enough?

How does inflation affect my retirement savings?

Inflation erodes purchasing power both before and during retirement, so a nominal dollar figure that looks sufficient today can fall short decades from now. This calculator shows results in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms so you're not planning around a number that quietly loses value.Read more: Social Security Estimator: Why Claiming Age Changes Everything

Estimates only, not financial advice. See our Disclaimer.